Consumer product index(消費者產品指數) is a measure of the overall value cost of the goods and services bought by a typical household
CPI值用來計算通貨膨脹，方法是將(第二年的CPI值減去第一年的CPI值)除上第一年的CPI值
Inflation in year 2 =
CPI in year 2 –CPI in year 1
-----------------------------
CPI in year 1
CPI是個固定的籃子(basket)，買的東西和數量不會有改變，因此可以用來測量物價上漲的情況；但它的缺點是:
1. 何謂典型家庭?
2. 在哪裡選擇購物?
3. 替代品問題(substitution bias):例如豬肉價格上漲，消費者可能會以雞肉來代替；但在CPI裡卻
無法看出來
4. 新產品的加入(Introduction of new goods): 如新增 i-pod或Wii，那CPI也會明顯不同。最明顯
的是電腦成為現代人日常生活的一部分，剛開始加入電腦到CPI籃子裡，CPI值必定增加，但
電腦增加的工作效率，卻無法被CPI顯現。
5. 無法測量的品質改變(Unmeasured quality change) :如果產品的品質變好，價格不變，那每一
塊錢的價值就變得更多，反之亦然；可CPI卻呈現不出來。
所以CPI並非能完美的呈現通膨情況。
因此通常CPI會超估(overstate)通膨的情況。
Saturday, March 17, 2007
GDP
GDP: Gross domestic production(國民生產毛額) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time
Y= GDP
C= Consumption, spending by households on goods and services, excluding purchase od new house
I = Investment, spending on capital equipment, inventories and structures, including purchase
of new house
G= Government purchases, spending on goods and services by local and central government
excluding welfare(transfer) payment
NX = Net exports (Export - import), spending on domestically produced goods by foreigners
(exports) minus spending on foreign goods by domestic residents (imports)
Y= C + I + G + NX
GDP 是一個國家的消費+投資(這裡限於投資在工廠和設備上)+政府支出+出口淨值
GDP不包括二手物品的交易，它只算新的完成產品；它不管工廠(或公司等)的擁有者國籍，只要在該國生產就算是該國的GDP
GDP的問題
當然，GDP是越高越好，但它只是平均的數值，所以有人賺的比GDP更高，但也有人賺的遠少於GDP值(再富裕的國家也有乞丐，而窮國也有富人可以進入全球富翁排行裡)。 它不包括沒有被紀錄的非法交易(黑市、毒品等)。 它也無法反映出一國乾淨的水源、安全的社會、美麗的自然景觀、家庭和個人價值以及社會公益活動。
假定一個國家的河流嚴重污染，清理河川的花費也是GDP的一部分，但比較高的GDP真的就有其價值嗎?
以世界工廠的中國為例，許多外資去設廠，但若外資將賺的錢都會回母國，那很高的GPD成長有何意義?
當然，GDP值越高，代表該國家的人能夠有能力接受比較好的醫療和吃比較營養食物；至少就物質上來看是越高越好沒錯。
但你無法否認的，和家人的相處時間、安全的社會經濟和政治環境、沒受污染的美麗自然景觀、人與人之間的幫助，遠比GDP值高卻又備受污染、戰亂頻繁的國家更加重要。
Y= GDP
C= Consumption, spending by households on goods and services, excluding purchase od new house
I = Investment, spending on capital equipment, inventories and structures, including purchase
of new house
G= Government purchases, spending on goods and services by local and central government
excluding welfare(transfer) payment
NX = Net exports (Export - import), spending on domestically produced goods by foreigners
(exports) minus spending on foreign goods by domestic residents (imports)
Y= C + I + G + NX
GDP 是一個國家的消費+投資(這裡限於投資在工廠和設備上)+政府支出+出口淨值
GDP不包括二手物品的交易，它只算新的完成產品；它不管工廠(或公司等)的擁有者國籍，只要在該國生產就算是該國的GDP
GDP的問題
當然，GDP是越高越好，但它只是平均的數值，所以有人賺的比GDP更高，但也有人賺的遠少於GDP值(再富裕的國家也有乞丐，而窮國也有富人可以進入全球富翁排行裡)。 它不包括沒有被紀錄的非法交易(黑市、毒品等)。 它也無法反映出一國乾淨的水源、安全的社會、美麗的自然景觀、家庭和個人價值以及社會公益活動。
假定一個國家的河流嚴重污染，清理河川的花費也是GDP的一部分，但比較高的GDP真的就有其價值嗎?
以世界工廠的中國為例，許多外資去設廠，但若外資將賺的錢都會回母國，那很高的GPD成長有何意義?
當然，GDP值越高，代表該國家的人能夠有能力接受比較好的醫療和吃比較營養食物；至少就物質上來看是越高越好沒錯。
但你無法否認的，和家人的相處時間、安全的社會經濟和政治環境、沒受污染的美麗自然景觀、人與人之間的幫助，遠比GDP值高卻又備受污染、戰亂頻繁的國家更加重要。
P/E
P/E: price-earnings ratio，本益比
P/E的算法是: 將市場上的價格除以現在EPS
P/E =
Market price
--------------
EPS
以股價為100塊的股票，EPS是 10 來算，P/E就是 10 (100/10=10)
其實P/E也能用來算各種投資的回報率，假定一間500萬的房子，出租後的年租可有50萬，那P/E就是10 (500/50 =10)
P/E代表的意義?
P/E= 10
即花十年後，它能夠為你賺回現在投資的價格；另一種方式說，就是每年的投資回報率有10%
用 1 除上P/E值，就是投資報酬率
P/E值是高還是低好?
高P/E值有兩種情況: 市場期待該股(公司)在未來有更好的表現；不然就是超估了(overvalue，被炒作的結果)
低P/E值則正好相反，有可能是被低估(undervalue)或者該股未來表現不被看好。
但以回報率來看，P/E值較低，投資報酬率比較高；而高P/E則相反。
P/E = 10 回報率是 10%
P/E = 20 回報率是 5%
P/E的算法是: 將市場上的價格除以現在EPS
P/E =
Market price
--------------
EPS
以股價為100塊的股票，EPS是 10 來算，P/E就是 10 (100/10=10)
其實P/E也能用來算各種投資的回報率，假定一間500萬的房子，出租後的年租可有50萬，那P/E就是10 (500/50 =10)
P/E代表的意義?
P/E= 10
即花十年後，它能夠為你賺回現在投資的價格；另一種方式說，就是每年的投資回報率有10%
用 1 除上P/E值，就是投資報酬率
P/E值是高還是低好?
高P/E值有兩種情況: 市場期待該股(公司)在未來有更好的表現；不然就是超估了(overvalue，被炒作的結果)
低P/E值則正好相反，有可能是被低估(undervalue)或者該股未來表現不被看好。
但以回報率來看，P/E值較低，投資報酬率比較高；而高P/E則相反。
P/E = 10 回報率是 10%
P/E = 20 回報率是 5%
EPS
EPS: earning per share
算法是將該公司公佈所發放的股利(dividends)除上所有的發行股票數
EPS=
Dividends
---------------------
No. of share issued
算法是將該公司公佈所發放的股利(dividends)除上所有的發行股票數
EPS=
Dividends
---------------------
No. of share issued
為何要投資?
在貨幣未出現前，除了以珍貴的金屬、貝類等當作交易的媒介外，就只剩以物易物了。
以種稻的農夫為例，其收成的榖粒，除自己食用外，還可拿來向其他人換取想要的東西，如換取布料製衣、取得鹽或海產等；當然，若是豐收，就能將剩下的儲藏起來，甚至當作第二年的種子。
同樣的，現代的貨幣也是一樣的性質；當你賺了錢之後，除了用來支付生活的食衣住行和其他消費外，若有所餘，就是儲蓄。
你可以選擇將它放在銀行裡(儲蓄)，也可以選擇完全花光(消費)，或者讓它在他處發芽(投資)。
人說錢滾錢，我以為是錢"生"錢。
將錢當成種子，讓其成長發芽結果，然後得到更多的種子(錢)，一直循環下去。
投資=投機(?)
以最基礎的供需來看，因為供給和需求的不同，才會導致價格的下跌與上漲。
但如何預測價格的動向，並非是投機，而是需要經過精細的分析才有的結論。
人無法控制天氣(市場)，但你可以從種種跡象(資訊)來做判斷，甚至搭蓋溫室(避險)來減少損失。
如果只將種子放在倉庫，它是無法製造出更多的種子來的，而甚至會發霉、腐爛(通貨膨脹)；因此如何選對投資方式是很重要的課題。
你決定要播種了嗎?
以種稻的農夫為例，其收成的榖粒，除自己食用外，還可拿來向其他人換取想要的東西，如換取布料製衣、取得鹽或海產等；當然，若是豐收，就能將剩下的儲藏起來，甚至當作第二年的種子。
同樣的，現代的貨幣也是一樣的性質；當你賺了錢之後，除了用來支付生活的食衣住行和其他消費外，若有所餘，就是儲蓄。
你可以選擇將它放在銀行裡(儲蓄)，也可以選擇完全花光(消費)，或者讓它在他處發芽(投資)。
人說錢滾錢，我以為是錢"生"錢。
將錢當成種子，讓其成長發芽結果，然後得到更多的種子(錢)，一直循環下去。
投資=投機(?)
以最基礎的供需來看，因為供給和需求的不同，才會導致價格的下跌與上漲。
但如何預測價格的動向，並非是投機，而是需要經過精細的分析才有的結論。
人無法控制天氣(市場)，但你可以從種種跡象(資訊)來做判斷，甚至搭蓋溫室(避險)來減少損失。
如果只將種子放在倉庫，它是無法製造出更多的種子來的，而甚至會發霉、腐爛(通貨膨脹)；因此如何選對投資方式是很重要的課題。
你決定要播種了嗎?
Friday, March 9, 2007
Mean Markets and Lizard Brain
1.Our instincts tend to be out of sync with financial opportunity.
2.Observe that the blade of grass that resists the lawn mower gets cut down, while the blade that bends remains uncut.
3.People are not rational, markets are often crazy.
4.It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
5.The U.S. consumer is unlikely to be a major source of economic growth.
6.Exports are a potential source for economic growth, but given their relatively small role in the U.S. economy the effect may not be significant.
7.The U.S. government has the potential to increase defcit spending and provied a boost to the economy. However, additional deficit spending may cause an increase in mortage rates and damage the housing market.
8.A cheaper dollar decreases imports and increases exports, reducing the current account deficit.
9.Buy at today's prices.
10.Buy inflation-protected securities.
11.The dollar is likely to fall against Janpanese Yen and Chinese yuan.
12.15% should be invested in nondollar assets.
13.U.S. government bonds will measure the speed and length of any decline in the bond market.
14.Bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rate.
15.When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. When interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
16.Rising interest rates are bad for bond owners.Falling interest rates are good for bond owners.
17.Lower bond prices mean higher future returns. higher bond prices mean lower future returns.
18.Borrow at fixed rates.
19.Buy bonds that mature soon.
20.To decrease the burden of rising interest rates is to reduce the amount of borrowing.
21.Growth rate is crucial to determing stock valuations.
22.Stocks provide protection against inflation and deflation.
23.Stocks provide against currency swings.
24.To buy stocks is the ability to avoid taxes.
25.Live in your home; make your money at work.
26.P/E of a home: Market price/Net rental income
P/E of a stock:Market price/Expected share
27.P/E Category
>30 Expensive
20-30 Premium
10-20 Solid value
Less than 10 Cheap
28.Have a fixed-rate mortage.
29.Don't trade emotionally.
30.Never trust anyone, not even yourself.
31.Losers average losers.
32.Do not dollar cost average.
33.If U.S. government bonds decline in value, so will other U.S. bonds.
34.Do not open your mutual fund statements.
35.Keep your financial news flow consistent with your decision time frame. As much as possible, turn off the TV during the day and don't look at your protfolio.
36.Maitain the ability to make at least two different moves.
37.Keep your investment position conservative enough so that you preserve both options of increased risk or decreased risk should other panic and present you with an opportunity.
38.Choose the time to go "all in" carefully and scale down quickly.
39.Those who trade too much should arrange their finances so that impulsive trades are not possible.
40.Remove temptation; do not expect to resist it.
41.When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.--Sherlock Holmes
42.Allocate more money to lower-risk assets.
43.Buy some inflation and deflation protection, eg. drug companies, oil companies, TIPS, Series I U.S. Saving bonds.
44.Pay off your debts.
45.Seek a secure paycheck.
46.Be different.
2.Observe that the blade of grass that resists the lawn mower gets cut down, while the blade that bends remains uncut.
3.People are not rational, markets are often crazy.
4.It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
5.The U.S. consumer is unlikely to be a major source of economic growth.
6.Exports are a potential source for economic growth, but given their relatively small role in the U.S. economy the effect may not be significant.
7.The U.S. government has the potential to increase defcit spending and provied a boost to the economy. However, additional deficit spending may cause an increase in mortage rates and damage the housing market.
8.A cheaper dollar decreases imports and increases exports, reducing the current account deficit.
9.Buy at today's prices.
10.Buy inflation-protected securities.
11.The dollar is likely to fall against Janpanese Yen and Chinese yuan.
12.15% should be invested in nondollar assets.
13.U.S. government bonds will measure the speed and length of any decline in the bond market.
14.Bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rate.
15.When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. When interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
16.Rising interest rates are bad for bond owners.Falling interest rates are good for bond owners.
17.Lower bond prices mean higher future returns. higher bond prices mean lower future returns.
18.Borrow at fixed rates.
19.Buy bonds that mature soon.
20.To decrease the burden of rising interest rates is to reduce the amount of borrowing.
21.Growth rate is crucial to determing stock valuations.
22.Stocks provide protection against inflation and deflation.
23.Stocks provide against currency swings.
24.To buy stocks is the ability to avoid taxes.
25.Live in your home; make your money at work.
26.P/E of a home: Market price/Net rental income
P/E of a stock:Market price/Expected share
27.P/E Category
>30 Expensive
20-30 Premium
10-20 Solid value
Less than 10 Cheap
28.Have a fixed-rate mortage.
29.Don't trade emotionally.
30.Never trust anyone, not even yourself.
31.Losers average losers.
32.Do not dollar cost average.
33.If U.S. government bonds decline in value, so will other U.S. bonds.
34.Do not open your mutual fund statements.
35.Keep your financial news flow consistent with your decision time frame. As much as possible, turn off the TV during the day and don't look at your protfolio.
36.Maitain the ability to make at least two different moves.
37.Keep your investment position conservative enough so that you preserve both options of increased risk or decreased risk should other panic and present you with an opportunity.
38.Choose the time to go "all in" carefully and scale down quickly.
39.Those who trade too much should arrange their finances so that impulsive trades are not possible.
40.Remove temptation; do not expect to resist it.
41.When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.--Sherlock Holmes
42.Allocate more money to lower-risk assets.
43.Buy some inflation and deflation protection, eg. drug companies, oil companies, TIPS, Series I U.S. Saving bonds.
44.Pay off your debts.
45.Seek a secure paycheck.
46.Be different.
續/敘/序/蓄/緖/旭
其實已經在blogger有了一個固定的blog，曾試圖在wretch和sina也創造新的，但成效不彰；原因很大部分歸咎於本人懶惰和愛拖的性格。
不過，這個blog會把第一個blog裡，所沒有的東西補上。
算來寫blog也進入第三年，照理來說，大學生活也差不多該結束；但在因緣際會下，成為理、商雙修的學生，所以也就只好繼續大學生活。
但這下也觸碰到了許多不同的領域。
因為生物進入第三年的課程，比較專業，微生物算是主修之一。
商學院的課程，則是還在大一的階段，但未來會努力的學習經濟和金融。
續:是延續第一個blog。
敘:是期許以最簡單的方式來說明想表達的知識。
序:是這新blog的第一篇。
蓄:是期待讀者能將資產做最好的規劃。
緖:是在行文中，可能參雜的個人情緒。
旭:是期待不論自己或讀者，人生能如同剛升起的太陽般。
不過，這個blog會把第一個blog裡，所沒有的東西補上。
算來寫blog也進入第三年，照理來說，大學生活也差不多該結束；但在因緣際會下，成為理、商雙修的學生，所以也就只好繼續大學生活。
但這下也觸碰到了許多不同的領域。
因為生物進入第三年的課程，比較專業，微生物算是主修之一。
商學院的課程，則是還在大一的階段，但未來會努力的學習經濟和金融。
續:是延續第一個blog。
敘:是期許以最簡單的方式來說明想表達的知識。
序:是這新blog的第一篇。
蓄:是期待讀者能將資產做最好的規劃。
緖:是在行文中，可能參雜的個人情緒。
旭:是期待不論自己或讀者，人生能如同剛升起的太陽般。
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